The circular viral firing squad

Who to really worry about in this emerging unmasked reality

The CDC freaks everybody out.

Except, weirdly, me. And I’ve been among the most freaked out for 15 months now. I’ve been extremely conservative, more conservative than almost anyone I know, when it comes to hygiene protocols in the face of COVID 19. We were still wiping down our groceries and take-out food for months. I was walking in the middle of the street with friends on the sidewalk, outside, while masked, until we were both fully vaxxed. I’ve still only been in a grocery store maybe four times. We didn’t go on any “safe” weekends away. We sat outside in distanced groups maybe 3-4 times total.

I listened to the In the Bubble podcast every week, and read and listened to lots of other expert content every week…epidemiologists, infectious disease doctors, and so on.

At the same time, I’ve been checking out my county’s COVID dashboard info on the daily. All of it. Positivity rate, case rate, hospitalization capacity, and now vaccination rate. I saw how it seemed like we had it totally well in hand back in September, but just a bit of loosening in mid-October, and the great winter COVID surge was kicked off. I saw how even if your numbers are small, if they start rising every day, even a little, they get big. (And this is the story of India, where they thought they totally had it nailed, so the vaccination rates were low when the variants hit.)

California went from GOAT to goat, and now we’re back to GOAT again, and it’s all about one thing: Vaccines. There are surely no two ways about it. In the race between vaccines and variants, vaccines won here in California, and in my county.

Nonetheless, it took everyone by surprise when the CDC issued guidance last week that fully vaccinated (meaning two weeks past your final dose) people could go inside and out without masks.

There are tons of caveats…not if you’re with a large group, not on public transportation, not in medical settings, not if the county, city, states, or individual establishment still wants you to.

But federal guidance changed, and I don’t think the CDC has communicated well around this at all, so most of my friends are not ready.

The main thing that makes them unready is lack of trust. Because both masks and vaccines became so weirdly politicized during the Tr*mp “presidency.” The common refrain I saw was that people didn’t trust other people to really not be wearing masks because they were really fully vaccinated.

And here’s what the devil on my shoulder said to me: All the people who, after 15 months of what we’ve all collectively gone through, want to go both unvaxxed and unmasked are going to create a big circular viral firing squad and almost exclusively harm themselves.

And I’m just not signing up for that to be on my conscience anymore.

The data doesn’t support that I’m at risk, and it doesn’t support that this guidance will make me a risk to others either.

Do I mean there’s zero risk? No, I don’t mean that. But the risk is far smaller than other things I think nothing of doing on the regular.

Does this mean I plan to never wear a mask? Not at all.

I feel terrible for parents of kids younger than 12, for instance, who aren’t eligible quite yet to get a vaccine. (Although the data do support that it is extremely rare for kids younger than 12 to have serious results from COVID or for them to be vectors in spreading the disease.) But extremely rare may not feel rare enough for any parent, and if there are kids around, my mask will probably stay on unless the parents there know me and trust me not to be lying about my vaxx status, just to ease the parents’ minds.

I also know that while plenty of immune-compromised folks (like my stepdad) have gotten the vaccine, there are some who may be advised by their doctors not to get it, or there are fears it won’t be fully effective. The CDC has info on what those with underlying medical conditions should do, and in most cases they recommend getting the vaccine because that same condition makes someone highly susceptible to a very bad outcome if they catch COVID. The vaccine trials included people with various conditions, including immune system-related conditions, like HIV. But data is limited. And of course, those who really are allergic to one of the vaccine ingredients. (Not allergy sufferers generally, to be clear, so my nephew with severe nut allergies got the vaccine no problem.)

Hopefully, those groups are continuing to mask, even double-mask, and distance to protect themselves, just like all unvaccinated people are supposed to. Sadly, I’m sure there are some kids whose parents don’t believe in masks, so they’re the most helpless group of all really.

Finally, there are essential workers. At this point in my area the vaccine has been available and accessible for essential workers for months, but I expect every business to set its own guidelines for mask wearing around their employees, and that some (like my local Starbucks) will keep requiring a mask to go in, no matter your vaccination status, and I will, it goes without saying, comply every single time. So, I haven’t become an anti-masker, never fear!

But.

I have spent 15 months now radically altering my life both for the collective good and out of, I have to say, real fear of catching COVID and what it would do to me. I know people who have lost multiple loved ones. I know more than one person with long-haul COVID. I do not take COVID lightly, quite the opposite.

But I also have continued to track the numbers. And if I say I’m pro-science, then the data has to keep mattering to me, and it is in my interest to be mindful, to be realistic, but to not be led by anxiety.

In my own area we’re lucky enough to enjoy very little vaccine hiestancy. After a slow start and insufficient allocations to my county, we’re now at almost 60% of 16+ being fully vaccinated and 75% having at least one dose, and a positivity rate of .6%, so we’re looking good here, and I know not every region has the same numbers.

BUt even if you live in one of those areas, the data on what being fully vaxxed means for you is very clear now.

When the vaccines were first released the stated proven outcome was to prevent serious illness, hospitalization, and death. They did not have the data to prove you couldn’t catch COVID if fully vaccinated nor that you couldn’t then transmit it if fully vaccinated.

But that is no longer the case. I know time is weird in these COVID times, but the vaccines started rolling out (to health care workers first) six months ago. In the U.S. alone more than 274 million doses have been administered. Almost 1.5 billion doses have been administered worldwide.

So there is now an undeniably HUGE sample size, over a longer period of time, and we know more stuff now. We know that fully vaccinated people are not catching COVID. So far the rate of breakthrough cases rests at .01%. And those people who did catch it generally had mild or asymptomatic versions. 1% of that .01% died, although some percentage of those folks seemed to have died from something other than other COVID. We also know that fully vaccinated people don’t seem to be transmitting COVID (which makes sense since they’re mostly not catching it).

In fact, a study shows that in the first four months of 2021, more than 99% of people hospitalized with COVID were not fully vaccinated.

Again, I understand, it’s non-zero; I understand there are exceptions, but the vaccine has been stunningly successful, and I agree with experts that in order to get even more people vaccinated we have to let them know their life will get better if they go through with it.

Unvaccinated people who would choose to lie about their status in order to go maskless have probably already been going maskless without saying they’re vaxxed, but I think they are getting ready to be part of the biggest, most dire self-own of the pandemic. After 15 months my empathy muscle seems atrophied when I think of those people.

So. how bad of a person does this make me?

(Hate to point you to Facebook, but I’ve already had one long conversation about this over there, and I would say the majority of my friends are not vibing with the above argument for Vaxxed Girl Summer.)

Last week-ish

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that last week saw the return of a couple of #beforetimes activities. On Saturday night the s.o. and I drove to a restaurant, met another couple, and sat (outside) eating a nice leisurely restaurant dinner without masks. Now, I had been to dinner (also outside) a few evenings earlier with a friend and without a mask once seated, but this was the s.o.’s first time. Then on Sunday, my family and I partook of a private watch party at our local Cinemark movie theatre. You should check out this deal (I hear AMC is doing it too). For $99 ($149 if you choose a first run movie) you can host up to 20 people and have a movie theatre to yourselves. They let you bring in cupcakes even if you’re having a celebration. (But nothing that competes with their concession stand, which seems fair.) So my folks, my three siblings and their spouses, one nephew, the s.o. and I settled in and watched Pitch Perfect in a real movie theatre. Even better, maybe, was seeing the previews!! The In the Heights trailer, for example, is spectacular on a big screen and with surround-sound. Now, I will say that I felt EXHAUSTED Monday morning, as though a grand total of 5-6 hours with people and an hour total of driving was just too much to pack into one weekend. I just keep saying, it’s going to be weird for a while, folks.

Last week’s episode 57 of The Op-Ed Page podcast is another look at a local hero working for a cause I love, or in this case the intersection of two causes I love. Stephanie is the Chief of Philanthropy and Community Development for the Humane Society of Silicon Valley, and we talk about their pet pantry Wellness Wagon, both designed to bring goods and services to underserved communities, so that everyone who wants to have a pet to love can do so. It’s a cool look at what goes on behind the scenes when a non-profit rolls out a new initiative. I also tell a bit of my origin story, namely, my first career choice. If you didn’t know, now you’ll know :)

What was your first career, and are you still in it? I’d love to know. (You know this newsletter is like a blog post, and you can leave comments on it, right?)

Coming this week-ish

I think on this week’s episode of The Op-Ed Page podcast I’m going to tackle the minimum wage. I have some thoughts on the debate over whether unemployment insurance, plus the extra federal stimulus dollars, are really the problem some business owners are having when hiring. I will also tell a little more of my #originstory, namely career #2!

I’m looking forward to a few zoom events next week, including an interview on the 26th with Julie Lythcott-Haims, author of several books, including her latest, Your Turn: How to Be an Adult. The List and Badass Babes are hosting this conversation which is perfect for Gen Z young adults and the people who love them! Check out Julie’s book and the event.

Leave a comment and let me know your thoughts on all of the above. And as always I appreciate a share of this newsletter or my podcast. 

And if you think I can help you break through the things that are keeping you stuck (or can help you prepare to take the win from an upcoming opportunity, no matter the outcome) you can always set up your first introductory 30-minute consult for free by booking it in my Calendly.

Have a great week-ish!